How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.