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The direst projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by researchers, including a searing 4C rise in temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea level. A separate possibility foresees a drop of 6C in temperature following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These effects, some of which are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as unlikely but credible. The scientists said that these models plugged a hole in planning that had left the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said the lead researcher who directed the analysis. "The nation has been making preparations without the methods to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now given decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Possibilities

A further series of worst-case scenarios maps the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These indicate that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than average, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The probability of the catastrophic events happening remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what action will be implemented to combat global heating and how the climate system will respond. This analysis was compared to national security risk assessments or scenario planning for economic stability.

Critical Scenario Details

• Four-Degree Warming: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts collapses or if strong feedback loops including the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its enormous store of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heat domes and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is slowing down and losing stability due to global heating. A full shutdown starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," noted the professor.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This counterintuitive effect occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

The severe models could be used to inform the development of major projects, such as housing developments, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Understanding these future hazards could also hasten the transition to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The research created the worst-case scenarios using a combination of observed and historical experience, digital projections and established principles. The scenarios omit broader worldwide issues including the devastation of food supplies and geopolitical instability.

The research was requested as part of a official climate resilience programme. Earlier reports have warned that insufficient focus was being allocated to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has stated that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the threats for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of the country's focus, both building resilience and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the impacts."