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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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